Since the warming plateaued in recent
years, data corrections have become ubiquitous. Many of the
corrections are warranted and accurate. But somehow, the
past always gets colder and the present warmer. I have
challenged the people who do data corrections to cite one
example where the overall warming trend was reduced in the
surface data after a revision. They cannot. I have counted
about 16 revisions to HadCrut or GISS and all of them
increased the warming trend. I would expect error
corrections to be random about the mean. Therefore, the
chance of these error corrections not being biased is
roughly 65,000 to one. But, this game is almost up. The
satellites and adjusted surface data are diverging more and
more as the "corrections" get bigger and bigger. Scientists
are watching. Data is being saved. Questions are
relentlessly being asked. Climate change
laws have cost the world's developed countries billions in
productivity. One large volcanic eruption will put more
green house gases in the atmosphere than fossil fuel
emissions from industry. China will continue to burn coal
until there is no more coal. Meanwhile the EU and America
penalize industry in their countries giving China more
market share. Obama and the legions of liberals have tied
industry in knots with regulations that are costly and
counter productive. The biggest threat to the world is an
elephant in the room. Over population is the threat not
pollution. But it is not PC to talk about population. The
growing population has lead to bad farming practices and
ultimately will be the biggest problem facing our planet.
You can call it climate change or any other name, but it is
overpopulation. It seems under acknowledged to me that
temperature record keeping began in the 1880s, which is when
Krakatoa blew its top and gave the world a decade of cold.
As for overpopulation - we are feeding more people with less
land than ever, and that trend's not going to change. The
real threat, especially in the First World, is
underpopulation. Below-replacement birth rates are going to
topple all the Ponzi-scheme welfare systems that are
currently transferring wealth from the young to the retired
and elderly. The authors do an admirable job of summarizing
the science and politics here.
What lies beneath the surface, however, is the undeniable
fact that the sole basis for the catastrophic predictions
are complex computer models (my field, by the way) that
have, by any reasonable metric, failed to forward predict
the current climate! To the extent that there is any
quantifiable science (but I repeat myself) of climate
catastrophe, it is these models. And models whose forward
predictions do not correspond to observations are, to put it
simply, not worth the electrons that are expended in running
them. Any conclusions made from these models are arbitrary -
they're "not even wrong". To make a single person
poorer as a result of the current state of climate science
is irrational and immoral. I actually think the models are
pretty good. But some estimates are made of things that
can't be modeled properly. I suspect these estimates are
intentionally exaggerated. Despite the billions spend on the
models, they simply give you what you want depending on you
initial assumptions. We now have a pretty long track record.
This link shows the forecasts that launched the entire
global warming industry in 1988. The graph is a simple
forecast vs observed. Skeptics can hardly
be called "true believers". There is no empirical
evidence, even over geologic periods when co2 level was
several TIMES higher than now, showing that co2 level has
EVER had any impact on temperature. The "true
believers" are those who respond to the above by ignoring,
denying, or responding with obfuscation and distraction. The
greenhouse gas theory, as applicable to the atmosphere,
includes a necessary condition - there must be a warm region
in the troposphere above the tropics. It is NOT there,
despite tens of millions of radiosondes. What's more, the
open atmosphere hardly qualifies as a greenhouse. There is
no convection across its boundaries, and no planetary level
feedbacks experienced within its boundaries. Satellites
detect heat escaping to space. The only correlation between
co2 and temperature is the reverse of what the alarmists
need. Temperature variation, both up and down is followed,
by 800 to 2800 years by similar co2 variation. |